How feasible are these Ivy and Big 5 upsets?

 

To start off, I believe that as a Penn fan you have to root for Cornell.

Not only are the Big Red repping the Ivy League, former Penn assistant Steve Donahue is as likable a guy as it gets. Cornell is clearly better than anyone else in the Ivies and deserves to be there. The Big Red also don't dive like Brown, cheat like Harvard, or pop their collars like Princeton. Okay, never mind, we like to do that too.

Anyway, No. 14 Cornell, No. 11 Saint Joseph's, No. 12 Temple and No. 12 Villanova are all underdogs, but some aren't by much.

In Vegas, No. 6 Oklahoma is a mere 1.5-point favorite over the Hawks - the only line that's more even is No. 7 Miami vs. No. 10 St. Mary's. Temple is +6.5 against No.5 Michigan State and Villanova is +6 against No. 5 Clemson. Finally, Cornell is getting 14.5 points against the No. 3 Cardinal.

First, I truly believe St. Joe's is going to win. Not only are the Sooners slightly overseeded in many people's minds, the Hawks are a very good team. Ahmad Nivins and Rob Ferguson are forces down low, Darrin Govens and Tasheed Carr are good ball-handlers and scorers, the lanky Garrett Williamson is a solid defender and 6-foot-10 guard Pat Calathes is a matchup problem for anyone. If you're a traditional guard, he'll shoot over you. If you're a forward, he's drive right past you.

Also, the Hawks play their best basketball when they are desperate.

St. Joe's made a nice run in the Atlantic 10 Tournament, soundly beating Fordham, Richmond and then 3-seed Xavier, all games it needed to win. Perhaps once rumblings started of them being in the NCAA Tourney even with a loss to Temple, the Hawks lost the desperation Phil Martelli wanted them to be playing with, and dropped a 69-64 decision to their Philly rivals. When I stepped into their locker room, it was dead silent, and Ive never seen someone look as angry and depressed as the captain Carr was after that game. Look for St. Joe's to come out firing against a team it can definitely beat.

Temple will have to play a very good game for an upset, while Villanova and Cornell will have to play great ones.

The Owls are playing great basketball, and should have been higher than a 12-seed. Michigan State is a great team, but not only guards Mark Tyndale (an absolute beast - had 15 rebounds against Charlotte in the semifinal) and Dionte Christmas (can score with the best of them) are playing well, the supporting cast - from 5-8 Chris Clark to 6-9 Lavoy Allen to 7-foot Sergio Olmos - is better than it ever has been. This should be a game, and it's hard to pick against the Owls.

Villanova and Cornell may have a shot, but it's slim. The Wildcats slip into the Tournament, and play Clemson, a team that really has Final 4 potential. The Tigers are 4-5 against Tournament teams, but four of those losses are to North Carolina or Duke, including having fallen twice to the Tar Heels in overtime and again last weekend by a thread. Scotty Reynolds is getting more help these days, but K.C. Rivers and Clemson's multiple big men inside as well as shooter Terrence Oglesby should be too much for Villanova

True, it didn't do much in the non-conference schedule, but it's hard to go against Cornell's win streak. Still, does it have a shot of stopping the Lopez twins? Probably not. But any team that shoots as well as the Big Red do, both from the field (49.2 percent, 41.4 from three) as well as from the line (76.3 percent) can be prime for a big upset.

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