Zero-one law

It's done. This morning, I handed in my probability final exam, the hardest test I've ever taken. It's not that I was unprepared, just prepared for the wrong things.

For instance, I had the zero-one law down pat. Given a certain set of conditions, which you'll thank me for not getting into, an event must either have probability one or probability zero. It is or it isn't. No gray area.

So in that spirit, assume all the conditions hold, and here are my zero-one laws.

Event: Penn will beat Illinois-Chicago and Seton Hall.
Probability: One.
Never mind exams and the rust of 12 days between games. This team will be so ticked off that the Flames, 1-3 on the road, won't have a chance, and the Quakers will carry the momentum into the Meadowlands.

Event: Penn will follow that up with a win over North Carolina
Probability: Zero
Anger won't do a thing against the nation's Under-20 All-Stars.

Event: Penn will shoot 50 percent from the field for the season.
Probability: Zero
The Quakers are among 24 teams making more shots than they miss, but that's a nearly impossible thing to keep up. Sorry for using the word nearly, I forgot the rules. But shooting 50.1 percent through nine games isn't bad. Mark Zoller and Ibrahim Jaaber firing at 59 percent apiece isn't hurting their cause.

Event: Four Quakers will average 30 minutes per game
Probability: One
I'm a little nervous about this one, because the zero-one law doesn't let me cheat and say "if everyone stays healthy." Steve Danley is fourth at 30.4 per game (behind Jaaber, Brian Grandieri and Zoller) despite foul trouble early on. Look for Mike Kach to continue eating into Tommy McMahon's minutes, but nobody else's should be in danger.

Event: Paul Arizin's story would be laughed at by a movie producer
Probability: One
The Big 5, and the basketball world as a whole, lost a legend when former Villanova and Philadelphia Warriors great Paul Arizin passed away yesterday at 78. The script of Arizin's life story begins when he is cut from his high school team at La Salle High School. It moves on to spotlight his enrolling in Villanova, as a student, not a basketball player and eventually being invited to join the team. By the time the credits roll around, he's been an All-American, a Basketball Hall-of-Famer and a member of the NBA's list of its 50 best.
Nah, too unrealistic for Hollywood.
Not for Philadelphia.

As a bonus, and as appeasement for taking time off to survive finals (sportswriters and academics mix like oil and water) here are Philadelphia's top 10 in our player rankings.

As always, the formula, taken from the book The Wages of Wins, accounts for points, rebounds, assists, field goal and free throw attempts, steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls. This week's are adjusted to Penn's nine games played.

1. Zoller, Penn, 99.0
2. Crawford, Drexel, 97.3
3. Christmas, Temple, 81.8
4. Nivins, St. Joe's, 79.5
5. Jaaber, Penn, 77.5
6. Grandieri, Penn, 71
7. Sumpter, Villanova, 70.5
8. Dacons, Temple, 67.5
9. Elegar, Drexel, 65.8
10. Harris, La Salle, 63.8