Breaking down the Final Four contenders

Consider our bracket alive — but just barely so. DPOSTM lost three of its Final Four teams — two in the Elite Eight, another in the Sweet Sixteen — but is still clinging onto its championship prediction of Florida. Let’s take a look back at last week’s craziness and look forward to the culmination of it all.

What We Got Right

Florida advancing easily

As predicted, the Gators emerged from the South regional with relative ease, toying with UCLA in the Sweet Sixteen before holding overmatched Dayton at arms length in the Elite Eight. The catalyst for Florida’s ticket to the Final Four? The electric play of point guard Scottie Wilbekin, who dropped 23 points against the Flyers, while also picking up three steals.

Michigan State toppling Virginia

In one of the tournament’s most thrilling games, the Spartans and Cavaliers went toe-to-toe at Madison Square Garden, with neither team budging an inch. Coach Tom Izzo’s decision to order an intentional miss of a late free throw that gave Virginia one last heave at the basket might have been risky, but his decision to leave the ball in the hands of Branden Dawson wasn’t — the junior guard pulled down 10 rebounds and accounted for almost half his team’s points in the 61-59 Michigan State win.

What We Got Wrong

Doubting John Calipari and Kentucky

I suppose we now know what the “real” Kentucky is. The Wildcats banded together to pick up two clutch wins over last year’s national finalists, Louisville and Michigan, looking experienced beyond their years in the process. Few people in Lexington will ever forget the sight of Aaron Harrison nailing a contested three-pointer with 2.3 seconds remaining in Kentucky’s Elite Eight matchup with the Wolverines, which clinched the program’s third Final Four appearance in four years.

Expecting history to repeat itself for Wisconsin

Badgers coach Bo Ryan traditionally attended the Final Four with his late father after his team had been eliminated. Now, he’ll be coaching on college basketball’s biggest stage. His Wisconsin squad barely outlasted top-seeded Arizona in overtime, 64-63, sending home one of DPOSTM’s Final Four picks and chasing away all the ugly memories of previous early NCAA Tournament exits in the process. His team has as good a shot as any in the semifinals.

Final Four Predictions

Sports Editor Ian Wenik

Florida (1) over UConn (7)

Sure, UConn beat Florida back when these two teams met in December, 65-64. But it took a miracle Shabazz Napier buzzer beater to beat the Gators back then, and it will take even more now, considering that was the last time Florida lost a game.

Equally disconcerting for the Huskies has to be the fact that they got virtually nothing from their frontcourt in their 60-54 win over Michigan State in the Elite Eight, as forwards Philip Nolan, Amida Brimah, Niels Giffey and DeAndre Daniels combined to shoot 8-for-24 from the field. That kind of effort will put UConn behind the eight ball very early on.

For Florida, Patric Young must be salivating at the prospect of taking on UConn’s soft frontcourt. He’s racked up eight blocks in the tournament, four of them coming in the Elite Eight against Dayton. I don’t see the Huskies having anything that even resembles an answer to either him or defensive-minded frontcourt-mate Will Yeguete on the boards.

All that considered, I don’t see any way Florida lets itself get caught napping for this game. The Gators have that loss from December firmly in the back of their minds, and are just too focused to let a repeat failure occur. Florida wins big.

Kentucky (8) over Wisconsin (2)

You can stop with all the Old School jokes about Wisconsin forward Frank “the tank” Kaminsky now. Sure, he bullied his way to 28 points and 11 boards in the Elite Eight, but Arizona simply didn’t have anyone that possessed the size or quickness to contend with him. Kentucky does.

Whether it’s freshman Dakari Johnson — a space-filling seven -footer — or likely lottery pick Julius Randle, the Wildcats have plenty of kinks to throw into Kaminsky’s game. Of course, Wisconsin has outstanding three-point shooters in Ben Brust and Sam Decker, but the Wildcats also have enough on the perimeter to force the ball into bricklayer Traveon Jackson’s hands.

Offensively, Kentucky’s dribble drive will be able to speed the game up to a level that the Badgers usually shun, which opens the door up to transition opportunities for Randle, along with Aaron and Andrew Harrison.

And that’s what’s going to be the difference. Kentucky’s youth will be able to run up and down the floor, ultimately running Wisconsin out of the tournament.

National Title Game

Florida (1) over Kentucky (8)

The supposedly-weak state of the SEC was used as a point of criticism against Florida all year long. Well, now that the conferences has two teams in the Final Four, who’s laughing now?

Florida probably is. After all, the Gators have beaten the Wildcats three times this year: at home, on the road and on a neutral floor. The closest of those contests was the SEC Tournament final, in which Florida only escaped by one point, 61-60. In that contest, Kentucky neutralized Young, Yeguete and Casey Prather, daring Florida to win through its jump shooting.

But that’s what the Gators did — Wilbekin and Michael Frazier II hit seven threes — and that’s what they’ll do again at AT&T Stadium. Wilbekin has shown too much poise in this tournament to back down when it matters most, not on the biggest stage of all, and especially not against a conference rival like the Wildcats.

Don’t get me wrong, this will be a close game, and Florida will get tested just as much as it did in the SEC Final. That doesn’t mean the result isn’t going to be the same in the end.

DPOSTM’s original championship prediction holds, as the Gators cut down the nets after winning their 32nd game in a row.

Final Four Predictions

Senior Sports Editor Steven Tydings

UConn (7) over Florida (1)

Oh Ian, I’m not going to let you go chalk all the way to the end. No. 1 overall is not destined for another run to the end like Louisville last year. Instead, much like Kemba Walker did for the Huskies in 2011, a senior point guard in Napier is ready to take Connecticut to the national title game. After all, it was this same Huskies squad that dealt Florida its most recent loss, all the way back in December.

I learned in 2011 not to doubt a star guard playing for Connecticut, regardless of whether it’s Jim Calhoun or Kevin Ollie coaching the Huskies. Call me crazy, but with all the hype around a group of freshmen this year (Jabari Parker and Andrew Wiggins to name a few), it’s going to be the senior guard getting things done.

Kentucky (8) over Wisconsin (2)

There is nothing more infuriating than watching Big Ten basketball (I’d much rather watch most Ivy games than boring Wisconsin-Purdue affairs). Therefore, I’ve got to go against the Badgers. Sure, Wisconsin has a grade-A quality mascot (Badgers are pretty awesome) but Kentucky is peaking at the right time and coach John Calipari is doing some of his best work at the perfect time.

National Title Game

Kentucky (8) over UConn (7)

Yes, this kind of contradicts my ‘senior star point guard trumps all’ rant from above, but these Wildcats from Lexington, Ky. are some of the most electrifying players I’ve seen in a while. With the way that freshmen Aaron Harrison and Randle are playing, not to mention a plethora of other guys at Calipari’s disposal, this is another year for a group of extremely talented first-years to take the NCAA by storm and give the preseason No. 1 overall team — Kentucky — its second championship in three years.