Resetting the NCAA Tournament Field

With the Sweet Sixteen getting underway tonight, our DP Sports bracket currently sits tied for 7th out of 483 entries in the DP’s Bracket Challenge. What did we get right, and what did we miss? Most importantly, what’s going to happen next?

What we got right

Stephen F. Austin and Harvard pulling first-round upsets

We don’t want to say we told you so, but, well, we told you so. The Lumberjacks’ halfcourt offense — with the exception of a 10-minute run in the second half — was able to find tons of open looks against VCU, while Harvard saw five different players score at least nine points against Cincinnati in a game that wasn’t nearly as close as the 61-57 final score.

A deep run for Baylor

The Bears took Creighton to the woodshed on Sunday by beating the Jays at their own game, sinking 11 of 18 three-point attempts for a ridiculous 61.1 percent shooting clip in an 85-55 win. Baylor’s guard combo of Brady Heslip and Kenny Chery (both Canadian, by the way) is absolutely deadly both inside and out. Wisconsin is on notice.

What we got wrong

Misplaced faith in New Mexico

Poor Cameron Bairstow. All along, we thought he was going to demolish Kansas inside with Joel Embiid out. True, the Jayhawks were finished in the first weekend, but it was at the hands of Stanford instead. Bairstow dropped 24 against the Cardinal in the round of 64, but he never had a shot after his teammates combined to shoot 9-for-34 from the floor.

Duke in the Elite Eight

DPOSTM may have six of its predicted Elite Eight teams left in the tournament, but our bracket was dealt a huge blow — just like everyone else’s — when the Blue Devils decided to no-show in the round of 64 against Mercer. As the Bears bullied their way inside behind Daniel Coursey, our editors cringed a little bit more with the sound of each Duke pull-up three hitting iron.

What’s next: South Region

Florida (1) over UCLA (4)

The Bruins’ duo of Jordan Adams and Kyle Anderson has been as good as advertised so far, but so have the Gators. After facing a little bit of adversity against Albany, Florida asserted itself inside, with imposing center Patric Young recording four blocks in a dominant 81-65 win over Pitt in the third round. UCLA simply doesn’t have anyone that can seriously challenge him inside. The top overall seed keeps on rolling.

Stanford (10) over Dayton (11)

Raise your hand if you saw THIS matchup coming. Didn’t think so. As other commentators have pointed out, Dayton has made a Sweet Sixteen run not only due to strong interior play, but also due to the fact that its opponents missed an alarming number of three-point shots in the second and third rounds. A little bit of regression to the mean, and the lowest remaining seed in the tournament goes home.

Elite Eight

Florida (1) over Stanford (10)

Stanford can give Florida some serious trouble on the low block. Center Stefan Nastic has been versatile on the defensive end, while 6-foot-10 power forward Dwight Powell willed his team to an upset win over Kansas with 15 points and seven boards. The Gators will win this one from deep, as guard Michael Frazier II finally gets on track.

What’s next: East Region

Michigan State (4) over Virginia (1)

The Spartans advanced past Delaware in the round of 64 thanks to 41 points from forward Adreian Payne, before staving off an upset bid from Harvard through the outside shooting of Travis Trice and Branden Dawson. Michigan State can beat you any way it wants to, and Cavaliers coach Tony Bennett can’t possibly gameplan for everything that’s going to get thrown at his team.

Iowa State (3) over UConn (7)

Forget the clock issues at the end of Sunday’s game against North Carolina. Iowa State guard DeAndre Kane firmly established himself as a March hero with his game-winning layup. It’s easy to see Kane and forward Melvin Ejim getting hot one more time to will the Cyclones to the Elite Eight, even with key forward Georges Niang out with a broken foot.

Elite Eight

Michigan State (4) over Iowa State (3)

But Iowa State can live without Niang for only so long. And against the long and athletic Spartans, his absence will ultimately prove to be fatal to the Cyclones’ dreams. Payne should have a field day on the glass as a once even matchup becomes lopsided, even with Michigan State’s normal four-guard offensive set pieces creating size disadvantages at other spots on the floor.

What’s next: West Region

Arizona (1) over San Diego State (4)

Arizona has looked even better than expected, thoroughly demolishing Gonzaga by 23 points on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Spartans are lucky to even be here after barely escaping New Mexico State in overtime in the round of 64. SDSU is almost totally reliant on guard Xavier Thames at this point, and that’s a bad track record to bring in against a team that can score from all spots on the floor.

Wisconsin (2) over Baylor (6)

Baylor may have guards, but Wisconsin has forwards in bunches. Look for big men Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker to keep pounding the glass (and step out to take the occasional three) as Bo Ryan’s ballclub moves on and comes one step closer to shedding its reputation as a squad that consistently comes up small against lower seeds when it matters most.

Elite Eight

Arizona (1) over Wisconsin (2)

But Kaminsky and Dekker haven’t come across anyone quite like Aaron Gordon, who is making his case for most outstanding player of the tournament with each offensive outburst. He dropped 18 points against Gonzaga, hitting eight of his 10 shots from the field. The Badgers won’t have an answer for that kind of offensive efficiency.

What’s next: Midwest Region

Louisville (4) over Kentucky (8)

After the Wildcats stunned undefeated Wichita State, pundits were quick to proclaim that they had just seen the “real” Kentucky. But does anyone know what the “real” version of this inconsistent band of freshmen even is? Don’t be tempted to pick the upset in this one, as the defending champs will move on comfortably.

Michigan (2) over Tennessee (11)

The Vols sure didn’t look gassed after playing three games in six days, easily dispatching national darling Mercer. The run ends here, though, as the Wolverines will survive and advance behind a huge game from forward Jordan Morgan, who has weathered fan criticism all year.

Elite Eight

Louisville (4) over Michigan (2)

Expect this rematch of last year’s title game to have a similar finish. Morgan can’t keep up his hot streak forever, and he’ll get terrorized on the low block by Cardinals forward Montrezl Harrell, who has come dangerously close to picking up technical fouls on the court for his raw emotion. He’ll get one more chance to yell in the Final Four.

Final Four

Florida (1) over Michigan State (4)

The Gators are possibly the only team in the country that can handle the Spartans right now. Young is big and physical enough to neutralize Payne on post-ups and drives, and Frazier, along with point guard Scottie Wilbekin, will be able to generate just enough of a perimeter game to send Tom Izzo’s squad home empty-handed.

Louisville (4) over Arizona (1)

The difference-maker in this contest will likely be Louisville’s championship experience. Gordon, for all of his talents, is only a freshman. In fact, he can only count one senior among his Wildcats teammates. Rick Pitino’s squad has seen it all before — and embraces it. Led by Russ Smith, the Cardinals will advance to the brink of a second consecutive championship.

National Championship

Florida (1) over Louisville (4)

But they will go no further. Florida is peaking at just the right time, having won 28 games in a row heading into the Sweet Sixteen. In a tournament where one bad night spells the end to your dream, the Gators seem positively incapable of collapsing now. Our original title prediction stands.