Ivy League weekend picks Week 1

As Penn enters the double-round robin Ivy Season this weekend, I'll write some previews of the other Ivy games coming up. (And on Monday I'll to bring back the "What the other side is saying" feature I did for some of the football games in the fall.) But to make these posts more exciting, I'll pick the games using the spread. Because let's face it, without a little (hypothetical) gambling, who really cares about Columbia versus Dartmouth?

So let's get started after the jump

Friday

Dartmouth (4-12, 0-2 Ivy) at Cornell (16-3, 2-0) (-25.5). Damn that's a big line. Then again, Dartmouth currently has no player averaging over 8.2 points a game, while Cornell has four such players. In fact, Cornell's starting five averages only about five points fewer than the entire Big Green roster. The Big Red is also 12-3 against the spread, including 4-0 when they're double digit favorites (that include two wins over Columbia). Dartmouth hasn't played in many games with a spread, but are 2-4 (1-1 Ivy) ATS.

Pick: Unless Cornell looks past the Big Green to the big matchup with Harvard tomorrow-- which certainly is a possibility -- I think Cornell will cover. (Either way, they're not losing outright).

Princeton (9-5, 0-0) (-5) at Brown (7-12, 1-1). This is the only Friday game in which the road team is the favorite. Brown has made vast strides of improvement this year after going 3-13 in the Ivy League last year. But Princeton has also improved, going a solid 9-5 in non-conference play. I think a four-point spread is a really good line, though Princeton is 2-0 when favored, beating Marist and Manhattan (guess they don't like Catholics).

Pick: One of Brown's three Ivy wins last year was home against Princeton and I definitely could see them winning again tonight. But I think it's going to be one of those tight games throughout that eventual ends up a 7-10 point margin. So I'm going with Princeton.

Harvard (13-3, 2-0) (-8.5) at Columbia (6-10, 0-2). Harvard has beaten teams from 10 different conferences this year. This stat has nothing to do with the spread, but I find it really cool. (Compare that to Penn, who even if they had gone undefeated would only have beaten teams from nine conferences). Anyway, Harvard's 6-3 ATS, while Columbia is just 2-2 (both losses to Cornell). The line of this game probably would be higher if Harvard hadn't struggled against Dartmouth last Saturday, winning just by four (they were 15-point favorites).

Pick: Harvard's going to win this game. But it's going to be closer than nine. Jeremy Lin will score his points, but with forward Pat Magnarelli out, Columbia's weakness inside might not be as much of a fatal flaw. Also, I think Harvard, more so than Cornell, could fall into the trap of overlooking tonight's opponent.

(Note, like Fleg, I'm not going to bet on games the team I cover plays, but Penn is eight-point underdogs to Yale.)

Saturday (so turns out there's no lines for tomorrow yet; so you'll have to check tomorrow morning for the actual lines).

Harvard at Cornell. Don't know if this is really the game of the year in ALL of college basketball, but it certainly is the game of the year for Ivy League (until the rematch in Boston at least). In case you forgot about them, Stephen Steinlight over at CBB has a recap on the alleged recruiting violations that Harvard was cleared of by the Ivy League. Yet I don't think any "Bunch of cheaters clap-clap clap-clap-clap" cheers will phase the Crimson.

Pick: My guess is the line is small and in Cornell's favor. Let's say 2.5. This is going to be a really close game I think, but in the end I believe Cornell will prevail (though they definitely could lose ATS).

Princeton at Yale. Depending on tonight's games, Princeton probably will be favored by like 7. Let's call this one an upset special and give it to Yale to at least cover.

Dartmouth at Columbia. Line maybe at -10 for Columbia (could be higher if they beat Harvard). Again, Dartmouth is woeful on offense, so I'll give the points and take the Lions.

(Penn would probably be a eight-point underdog if they lose a close game to Yale.)

Your thoughts/picks in the comments (but a warning: I'm going to games with the band so I won't be able to respond until Sunday morning).