Five reasons to worry

 

While Josh seems to be riding high into tonight's game, I'm a lot more cautious about Penn's chances. Why? Here are the top five reasons why I'm worried about tonight's game:

1. Eric Osmundson's health

Don't be surprised if Oz gives Penn very little tonight or doesn't play at all. He's definitely hurting after suffering that separated shoulder against Harvard on Saturday.Yesterday's quotes by Dunphy and Oz were full of optimism and gamesmanship. They don't want Princeton knowing the true extent of the injury. Brian Grandieri may be good replacement on offense, but Oz's defense will be hard to replace.

2. The matchup zone

Penn has stuggled against much simpler defenses this year. Brown shut the Quakers down with a simple 2-3 zone. And Penn looked awful at times against Temple's similar zone. If the Quakers don't come out fast, they will get frustrated.

3. Princeton's center is 6-foot-4

Yes, walk on center, Justin Conway, is certainly a mismatch guarding Penn's Steve Danley, who is 6-8. But the zone can compensate for some of this size disadvantage. But Danley is going to really struggle on defense when he has to try and keep up with the much quicker Conway. The Penn forward may get into foul trouble early.

4. Momentum, momentum, momentum

I'm going to argue that Princeton actually has more momentum going into this game. The Quakers have been plodding through their Ivy schedule winning by 15 and 20, but this is just living up to expectations. Princeton, on the other hand, is exceeding its expectations, which I think gives them more confidence. And they definitely have got to have an extra boost of confidence after winning so many cloise game in recent weeks.

5. Any remember last year's game?

Princeton proved last year that it could get up for a game at the Palestra and quickly take the crowd of it. Sure, Penn came back to win that game but that was pretty much thanks to a Princeton meltdown. If the Tigers come out tonight like they did last year, don't expect them to blow another lead.

With that being said, I still would be surprised if Princeton came away with a win tonight. All I'm saying is that the Tigers really should be taken seriously.

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