Previewing Cornell-Stanford

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Here are a few previews of the Cornell-Stanford game, which I will be tuning in to, come hell or Poli-Sci recitation:

• CBS Sportsline
• Palo Alto Weekly
• New York Times
• ESPN.com (scroll down)
• Joe Lunardi
• Associated Press
• Ithaca Journal
• Stanford Athletics
• Cornell Athletics

You have to think that the clash of the NCAA's brainiacs will be a close one. Cornell is in many ways the kind of Tournament team Jay Bilas is always labeling "dangerous" (incidentally, he'll be calling the game for CBS, along with rookie Carter Blackburn). The Big Red shoot very well from the floor and especially well from the free-throw line, and don't turn the ball over much. They led the Ivy League in turnover margin (+.74) and assist-to-turnover ratio (1.14).

There's one more interesting aspect of this matchup. While Penn has tried to slow things down into the half-court its last two trips to the Tournament -- with more success against Texas two years ago than against Texas A&M last year -- Cornell might be put in the unusual position of trying to speed things up. The Cardinal prefer to play behind the opposing defense in transition to let their big men get into their offense, and they work more effectively in the half court. Cornell has speedy point guard Louis Dale and great spot-up shooters in Ryan Wittman and Adam Gore. If Cornell gets numbers down the floor and hits a few buckets in transition, it could do some damage quickly; and in the half-court game, it will likely have an easier time attacking from the perimeter.

Stanford coach Trent Johnson singled out Wittman in his remarks to the media today.

"I think we'll just have to do a good job of staying with him and not really getting lost in transition and giving up some three-point shots in transition," Johnson said.

Defensively, I'm not really sure what Cornell will do to stop Stanford. It will be especially hard to do that in the paint. Stanford gets blocked an average of just 5.9 times for every 100 two-point shots it takes, the third-lowest rate in the nation. Brook Lopez can get his 20 and 10 and Cornell can still be competitive, as long as the rest of the Cardinal isn't hitting a lot of twos as well. Stanford gets 50 percent of its point production from its '4' and '5' players, about 10 percent more than the Big Red gets from their frontcourt.

“Stanford plays their way,” Cornell coach Steve Donahue told reporters. “Very deliberate; very disciplined. They don't really get out of it for anybody, watching their film. They're going to run their certain sets, they're going to get their pace of the game, and they're going to be physical."

Now, for the stat comparison you've been waiting for.

Record Stanford: 26-7 Cornell: 22-5

RPI Cornell: 65 Stanford: 14

Strength of schedule Cornell: 265 Stanford: 56

Points per game (differential) Cornell: 77.1 (+9.0) Stanford: 70.7 (+10.1)

Field-goal % (3-point %) Cornell: 49.2 (41.4) Stanford: 44.9 (36.0)

Free-throw % Cornell: 76.3 Stanford: 69.6

Rebounds/game (differential) Cornell: 33.9 (+1.2) Stanford: 38.8 (+10.0)

3-point FG attempts/total FG attempts (%) Cornell: 35.1 Stanford: 27.1

There are lots of variables at work, but don't hold your breath. ESPN.com gives Cornell a 16% chance of pulling the upset, and I'd be hard-pressed to argue with that number.